As an update to the previous post on my thoughts on the Fragile Five , we've got a fast mover already, with the South African Rand hitting intended targets, of which I honestly thought would take more of a grind and not a somewhat precipitous kind of ascent, with four near-consecutive strong up-days. Although not attributed to any specific event risks, the highly positive NFP is blamed for the rise in the pair, alongside the underlying macro backdrop of shitty deficits and the like. Apparently, Eskom, SA's largest electricity provider is imposing large electricity cuts to avoid a collapse in their overall grid. For obvious reasons, no electricity = hampered economic activity.
Apparently, peers like Nigeria are also experiencing some selling in their currency (chart courtesy of @russian_market, I so wish I have a bloomberg terminal, but sadly that's not from me haha). Political instability with Boko Haram (this is super murky geopolitics, do your own due diligence) and falling oil prices has been shooing investors in the once attractive frontier market nation.(I would have never known that I would cover EM and frontier currencies, but here we are lol) Criticisms for poor oil revenue management failing to reach infrastructure investment has also hampered positive sentiment to grow for Nigeria, and as such... the two economic giants of Africa are selling off in tandem.
Just an update! And some interesting catch of the days found in Twitter!
Mostly a place where I write down my macro/RV ideas. Feedback more than welcome.