Hope everyone is having a festive time off on the holidays with family and friends, and have got great plans coming ahead for 2015!! :) Thought I'd put out some recreational research out there for the major Asian/Pacific pairs to close the year (will definitely keep in touch with my still intact views on EM's fragile Above are the Aussie, Yen and Kiwi's returns since 2004 between Christmas and New Year. There's not incredibly strong seasonal pattern seen, but with an average return of 1.00% and 1.50% respectively for the NZDUSD and AUDUSD, it seems that there exists that skew to positive returns in this festive period. Despite the tendency to produce positive returns though, we're not seeing that caliber of returns recently since 2012 (yes, we can probably blame the overall low volatility environment perhaps regarding this). Contrasting to the antipodeans, the USDJPY has a more pattern-less and erratic trend of returns for the past 10 years and has been quite two-sided.
With an overall view of bullish NZD for next year, and its marked relative strength so far, who knows, we might see perhaps a 0.6-0.8% return perhaps? Anyhow, it should be interesting to do further research in regards to whether there is any correlation between a strong overall trend across the year/n-period of months having pullbacks across this time period with positions squaring out and all. I will get back to that, but damn it its holidays, so it's time to disconnect and enjoy the festive season so once again,
Wishing you an awesome New Year to come and for it to be an even more fruitful year ahead,
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